Active hurricane season predicted

THE HURRICANE SEASON officially starts today June, 01 and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Gray’s team are pointing to an above-normal hurricane season 2011. NOAA gives a forecast range, while Gray’s team gives specific values.

On average, the Atlantic area experiences 10 named Storms (NOAA and Gray predict 12 – 18 and 16 respectively); 6 hurricanes (NOAA and Gray predict 6 – 10 and 9 respectively); and 2 major hurricanes (NOAA and Gray predict 3 – 6 and 5 respectively). Important to the Caribbean Region is an increased probability of 61% (on average its 42%) that at least one (1) major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5) is likely to track into the Caribbean [10 -20N; 60-68W]. Further, warm Caribbean Sea temperature, Low surface pressure and tropical waves have been noted over the Caribbean basin, giving support to model outputs of possible early tropical cyclone formation in the Southwest Caribbean area.

Factors, among others, supporting the prediction of an above North Atlantic Hurricane season for 2011 are; warm Atlantic Ocean water which is up to 2 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than average and the present La Nina phase, which although projected to weaken, its impact on reduced wind shear is expected to continue. Warm sea surface temperature and weak wind shear both contribute to greater likelihood of tropical cyclone formation.

2011 Atlantic Storm/Hurricane Names

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